Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Conflict early warning and response mechanisms: tools for enhancing the effectiveness of regional organisations? A comparative study of the AU, ECOWAS, IGAD, ASEAN/ARF and PIF

By Herbert Wulf and Tobias Debiel


This paper aims to present a systematic overview of key existing early warning response mechanisms and to analyse to what extent and under what conditions these mechanisms might be a useful peace and security promotion tool for regional organisations. It analyses the strengths and weaknesses of existing EWR mechanisms and the experience of regional organisations in implementing them, as well as examining why some regional organisations have failed to establish such mechanisms

Topics: JZ International relations, U Military Science (General)
Publisher: Crisis States Research Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science
Year: 2009
OAI identifier:
Provided by: LSE Research Online

Suggested articles


  1. (2009). (citation authorized by the author). doi
  2. (2008). A Conversation on Early Warning with Howard Adelman’.
  3. (2005). A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
  4. (1998). A Pattern Recognition Approach to Conflict Early Warning’,
  5. (2008). A Regional Security Perspective from and for the Horn of Africa’, doi
  6. (1997). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. doi
  7. (2007). Africa's Early Warning System: An Emperor with No Clothes?’ doi
  8. (2007). Afrikanische Sicherheitsarchitektur – ein aktueller Überblick’,
  9. (2001). Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR). Fort Belvoir, Virginia: United States Army Centre for Army Analysis (CAA).
  10. (2007). ASEAN at 40: Mid-Life Rejuvenation?’ Foreign Affairs.
  11. (2008). Can Violence, War and State Collapse be Prevented? The Future of Operational Conflict Early Warning and Response.
  12. Carleton’s Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project
  13. (2008). Carleton’s Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project (CIFP). doi
  14. (2009). Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, United States Institute of Peace.
  15. (2001). Comprehensive Review of the Whole Question of Peacekeeping Operations in all their Aspects’. Report of the Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations. New York: United Nations General Assembly.
  16. (2004). Conducting a Conflict Assessment: A Framework for Analysis and Program Development.
  17. (2002). Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes. London: Department for International Development (accessed
  18. (2001). Conflict Analysis for Project Planning and Management. A practical guideline.
  19. (2002). Conflict Early Warning and Prevention: Toward a Coherent Terminology’,
  20. (2006). Conflict Early Warning Systems.
  21. (2006). Conflict Early Warning: Warning Who?’
  22. (2007). Conflict prevention and early warning mechanisms in West Africa: A critical assessment of progress’, doi
  23. (1999). Conflict Prognastication: Toward a Tentative Framework For Conflict Assessment’, Clingendael Institute CRU Occasional Paper.
  24. (2000). Conflict Prognosis: Bridging the Gap from Early Warning to Early Response - Part One. The Hague: Clingendael Institute.
  25. (1999). Conflict Vulnerability Analysis: Issues, Tools, and Responses.
  26. (2003). Conflict-Related Development Analysis. New York: Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery,
  27. (2001). Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Development – A Review of Practice.
  28. (2001). Control Risks Group (CRG)’,
  29. (2008). Conversation with Michael Lund and Patrick Meier on Early Warning (as of
  30. (2007). Cooperation in Contention:
  31. (2008). Country Indicators for Foreign Policy. doi
  32. (2003). Creating Peace in the DRC’, Regional Study for the Strategic Roundtable in Sando,
  33. (2007). Deciding to Prevent Violent Conflict: Early Warning and Decision-making within the United Nations’.
  34. (2003). Declaration of ASEAN Concord II doi
  35. (1998). Defining Humanitarian Early Warning’,
  36. (2004). Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. doi
  37. (2007). Development-Oriented Transformation in Conditions of Fragile Statehood and poor Government Performance. Bonn: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
  38. (2008). Die Vereinten Nationen und die Afrikanische Union. Asymmetrische Partnerschaft bei der Krisenbewältigung in Afrika’,
  39. (2008). Directorate General External Policies.
  40. (2004). Early and Late Warning by the UN Secretary General of Threats to Peace: Article 99 Revisited’,
  41. (2007). Early Warning and Conflict Management in the Horn and West Africa’,
  42. (1999). Early Warning and Prevention: The Case of Rwanda’, in Nicholson, Frances (ed), Refugee Rights and Realities: Evolving International Concepts and Regimes, Cambridge:
  43. (2004). Early Warning and the Field: A Cargo Cult Science?’, Berghof Handbook. doi
  44. (2008). Early Warning at the Grass-Roots Level: Fine-tuning Early Warning to Context and User-Needs’, paper presented at the 49 th
  45. (2003). Early Warning: Some Techniques and Other Thoughts’, Speaker,
  46. (2008). Early Warning? A Review of Conflict Prediction Models and Systems’,
  47. (2005). Economic aid to postconflict countries: A methodological critique of Collier and Hoeffler’, CMI Working Paper WP 2005: 4, doi
  48. (2001). Economist Intelligence Unit: Guide to Ratings’,
  49. (1999). Ethnic Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature’. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2208, doi
  50. (2006). European Commission Check-List for Root Causes of Conflict. doi
  51. (2002). Explaining ASEAN: Regionalism in Southeast Asia. Boulder (Lynne Rienner). doi
  52. (2006). FAST Analytical Framework Pakistan.
  53. (2005). Forecasting Instability: Are Ethnic Wars and Muslim Countries Different?’ paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
  54. (2007). Forming a security community: lessons from ASEAN’, doi
  55. (2008). Forty years of ASEAN: a historical review’, The Pacific Review doi
  56. (2006). Fragile States Indicators. A Supplement to the Country. Analytical Template.
  57. (2008). Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States. Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk’, Center for Preventive Action Working Paper,
  58. (2008). Framework for the Operationalization of the Continental Early Warning System.
  59. (2005). Fuelling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts. doi
  60. (2000). Generating the Means to an End: Planning Integrated Responses to Early Warning. London: Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER).
  61. (2008). Global Peace Index doi
  62. (2001). Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 2355, doi
  63. (2000). Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars. doi
  64. (2008). How to Note on Country Governance Analysis’. A DFID Practice Paper,
  65. (2006). Human Security Brief doi
  66. (2007). If I look at the Mass I will Never Act: Psychic Numbing and Genocide’, Judgment and Decision Making doi
  67. (2009). Information taken from (accessed on
  68. (2006). International Country Risk Guide: Data. (accessed
  69. (2008). Islands Forum Secretariat (PIF).
  70. (2008). Islands Forum Secretariat (PIF). 2008b. ‘Acting SG Forau speech at opening of
  71. (2009). Lessons Learned from Establishing a Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)
  72. (2006). Lessons learnt from Iraq – Where Do We Go From Here?’. Iraq Report 6.
  73. (2002). Local Information Networks: Practical Requirements and Considerations.
  74. (2008). Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs,
  75. (2005). Measuring Fragility. Indicators and Methods for Rating State Performance.
  76. (2008). Mid-year evaluation and update of ECOWARN.
  77. (2005). Modelling Transitions to and from Democracy’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, doi
  78. (2008). Mühseliger Aufbau: Frieden und Sicherheit in der AU’,
  79. (2007). New Strategies for Early Response: Insights from Complexity Science’.
  80. (2003). No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since doi
  81. (2002). On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa’, doi
  82. (2008). Peace and Conflict
  83. (2003). Political Instability Task Force Report: Phase IV Findings.
  84. (2007). Prevention of Violent Conflict: Tasks and Challenges for the United Nations’,
  85. (2002). Protocol on the Establishment of a Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism for IGAD Member States. Djibouti: Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
  86. (2002). Protocol relating to the establishment of the Peace and Security Council. (accessed
  87. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. doi
  88. (2008). Security in the New Millennium: A Debate in the South Pacific on Peace and Security: Alternative Formulations in the Post Cold War Era’, doi
  89. (2008). Security Regionalism in Theory and Practice’, doi
  90. (2005). Security, Community, and Democracy in Southeast Asia: Analyzing ASEAN’, doi
  91. (2000). Sovereignty, Intervention and the ASEAN Way’, Address given by the Secretary-General of ASEAN.
  92. (2001). Standard & Poor's Ratings Group: Sovereign Credit Ratings: A Primer’,
  93. (2005). State Collapse and Reconstruction: phase 2 of the Crisis States Programme’
  94. (2000). State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings.
  95. (2008). States Emerging from Hybrid Political Orders – Pacific Experiences’. Australian Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies Occasional Papers 11, Brisbane: Australian Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies.
  96. (1998). Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies’, doi
  97. (2005). Talking points for presentation at the Wilton park conference.
  98. (2008). The African Union’s evolving role in peace operations: the African Union Mission in Burundi, the African Union Mission in Sudan and the African Union Mission in Somalia’, doi
  99. (2008). The ASEAN alternative? Ideas, institutions and the challenge to ‘global’ governance’, The Pacific Review doi
  100. (2004). The Cconomic Analysis of Civil War According to Paul Collier. A sociologist's view.
  101. (2004). The Challenge of Reducing the Global Incidence of Civil War’. Copenhagen Consensus Challenge Paper, Oxford: Centre for the Study of African Economies.
  102. (2002). The Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF): Identifying Conflict-related Obstacles to Development’, Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Notes 5,
  103. (2000). The Constitutive Act. (accessed
  104. (2008). The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning’, paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention,
  105. (2005). The frightful inadequacy of most of the statistics: A critique of Collier and Hoeffler on causes of civil war’,
  106. (1998). The FUGI Model as a Global Early Warning System for Refugees’, in J.L. Davies and T.R. Gurr (eds), Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield.
  107. (2009). The Hague: Clingendael Institute. (accessed
  108. (2005). The Human Security Report doi
  109. (1998). The Humanitarian Early Warning System: from Concept to Practice’,
  110. (2005). The Stability Assessment Framework: Designing Integrated Responses for Security, Governance, and Development.
  111. (1998). The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for US Foreign Policy Planning’,
  112. (2008). The Twelve Indicators of Cast.
  113. (2005). Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa’, ISS Occasional Paper 102, Cape Town: Institute for Security Studies.
  114. (2006). Towards a New Definition of Intelligence’,
  115. (2008). Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability’.
  116. (2004). What Is Civil War?: Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition’, doi
  117. (2000). Why Are There So Many Civil Wars in Africa? Understanding and Preventing Violent Conflict’, doi

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.