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The Coalition Government has only a 1 in 3 chance of lasting its term. Statistical modelling predicts its fall in October 2014

By Chris Hanretty


There has been much recent talk about the possibility of the Coalition government falling before the parliamentary term is up. Chris Hanretty uses a quantitative statistical model to suggest that this is indeed probable, and that the best prediction indicates the government will fall in October 2014

Topics: JC Political theory, JN101 Great Britain
Publisher: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Year: 2012
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Provided by: LSE Research Online

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