Article thumbnail

Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review

By E.W. Tiemersma, M.J. van der Werf, M.W. Borgdorff, B.G. Williams and N.J.D. Nagelkerke

Abstract

Background The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. Methodology and Principal Findings To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. Conclusions Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory

Topics: A - open article in open journal
Year: 2011
DOI identifier: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017601
OAI identifier:
Provided by: NARCIS
Download PDF:
Sorry, we are unable to provide the full text but you may find it at the following location(s):
  • http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 (external link)
  • http://dare.uva.nl/oai_narcis (external link)
  • https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/1... (external link)
  • https://dare.uva.nl/personal/p... (external link)
  • Suggested articles


    To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.