Background: CAPAP, the activation peptide of procarboxypeptidase B, is a predictor of severe acute pancreatitis (AP). Active carboxypeptidase (aCAP) may be a better predictor, as its turnover is slower. Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) is an early inflammatory marker and increases before complications in severe AP. We conducted a cohort study to evaluate these markers as predictors for severe AP. Method: 140 patients with AP were included, retrospectively grouped as severe or mild by the Atlanta classification. CAPAP, MCP-1 and aCAP were analyzed in admission samples. Receiver operating characteristic curves determined high vs. low levels. Results: The levels of all markers were significantly higher in patients with severe disease. High levels of serum MCP-1 was associated with a high risk of developing severe AP (OR 40.8; 95% CI 8.5-195). High ORs were also seen for urine MCP-1 (OR 7.3; 95% CI 2.2-24.3), serum CAPAP (OR 5.4; 95% CI 1.6-17.7), urine CAPAP (OR 4.8; 95% CI 1.6-14.2), and serum aCAP (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.2-11.3). Conclusion: Serum MCP-1 at admission was strongly associated with development of severe AP. MCP-1 in urine, CAPAP in serum and urine and aCAP may also be useful for predicting severe AP. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP
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