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Uncertainty in Combat



F rom this uncertainty of all intelligence ic sonar would detect at a fixed, certain and suppositions, this continual inter- range, a phenomenon called a "definite i Commentary F position of chance, the actor in War range law. " In the 1950s, a surface ship constantly finds things different from his sonar detected at short ranges of about 1500 expectation: and this cannot fail to have an yards, so it was feasible to conduct a close-influence on his plans, or at least on the ly controlled test. Destroyer sonars were Uncertainty presumptions connected with these plans. run past a target submarine at known If the influence is so great as to render the ranges. After isolating as many influences inC0 m ih predetermined plan completely null, then, as possible, it was apparent that initial mnC at as a rule, a new one must be substituted in detection ranges were still variable, and its place; but at the moment the necessary sonar detections on submarines remain so data are often wanting for this, because in to this day. After the test Koopman con-the course of action circumstances press for cluded that sonar detection ranges were Wayne P. Hughes, Jr. immediate decision, and allow no time to more than likely deterministic, but there look about for fresh data, often not enough were other important variables not S eno t e

Year: 2016
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