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The comparative analysis of decision support system creation quantitative methods for enterprises in conditions of the uncertainty

By Александр Геннадьевич Шестопалов and Олег Николаевич Гуца

Abstract

В статье выполнено сравнительное исследования количественных методов с целью обнаружения их недостатков и оценки их адекватности на примере расчета вероятности банкротства. Для избавления недостатков количественных методов было предложено использование качественных методов, как пример был рассмотрен метод ОРКЛАСС. Использование качественных методов позволило бы не только избавиться от обнаруженных недостатков, а и дало бы возможность получать рекомендации по улучшению ситуации.In article it is performed comparative of research of quantitative methods for their deficiencies and the evaluations of their adequacy by the example of calculation of probability of bankruptcy. For deliverance of deficiencies of quantitative methods use of qualitative methods was offered, as example was considered method ORKLASS. Using qualitative methods would not only get rid of the deficiencies found, but also would make it possible in addition to the quantitative results get recommendations . Today there are many methods that predict the probability of any phenomena in the economic sector in the face of uncertainty. All of these methods are constructed on mathematical models using numerical values and algebraic operations on them, that is, they quantitative. The most popular and common models, used for methods of the evaluation of probability of bankruptcy, are considered following: Altman Z-score, a revised Z-Score model and Altman model adapting for the non-manufacturers. For example, was calculated probability of bankruptcy “Ukrtelecom” company and all models give inadequate results. It is possible to draw conclusion that it is necessary to think above approach to creation of a new model of forecasting, as deficiencies of quantitative methods can bring to nothing a huge scope of work. The decision of this problem can become use of q ualitative methods apart from quantitative, as all deficiencies listed above are not inherent to qualitative methods, hence, at their use of the model to be deprived as well of these deficiencies. Additionally, use of qualitative methods will allow not only to give quantitative result, and possible problem solving variants, if such is

Topics: экономическая сфера, математические модели, качественный метод, расчет вероятности, банкротство, model, quantitative method, qualitative method, analysis, probability
Publisher: НТУ "ХПИ"
Year: 2016
DOI identifier: 10.20998/2413-4295.2016.42.26
OAI identifier: oai:repository.kpi.kharkov.ua:KhPI-Press/26891

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