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MODELING OF AN EARTHQUAKE RISK AS A POINT PROCESS FROM INDONESIAN REGION

By Sunusi N, kresna A J, Islamiyati and Herdiani

Abstract

Study on geophysical risk is still an interesting topic to study. In the seismological context, geophysical risk/hazard rate (earthquake hazard) is defined as the expected rate of occurrence of an event per unit time. In this research, the occurrence of an earthquake was considered as a renewal process in which the last earthquake event was considered as an observed event for the next earthquake. In this process, we assumed that the inter event time was exponentially distributed. To estimate the parameters of model, we used a Bayesian approach in which the Gamma parameter was used as prior information. The result showed that earthquake risk in some parts of Indonesia was depending on the inter event time and the number of earthquake occurrence

Topics: Geophysical risk, Point process, Renewal process, Bayesian. Mathematics Subject Classification : 62M86
Publisher: lp2m unhas
Year: 2014
OAI identifier: oai:repository.unhas.ac.id:123456789/12675
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