Model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for thermal comfort prediction

Abstract

Building Performance Simulation (BPS) is poorly used to support informed decision making between different design options nor is it used for building and/ or system optimization. Currently BPS is only used for code compliance during the detailed design [Wilde, 2004]. The approach of this research by using an existing tool as initial prototype is rapid prototyping to make incremental improvement of BPS. This paper elaborates the above in more detail in particular by focusing on an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for thermal comfort prediction. A case study is described to evaluate the necessity of the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in BPS. For that purpose an in the Netherlands well-known and commonly-used simulation tool for the detailed design is chosen. Furthermore, a range of results reflecting the impact of UA and SA are presented