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On the estimation of trip matrices in the case of missing and uncertain data

By Sven Erlander, Kurt O. Jörnsten and Jan T. Lundgren


The problem of missing data in the base (calibration) year is of major importance when applying the gravity model in transportation planning, because base year data are used for calibration of the model. In this article, this problem is tackled by solving an optimization problem for the prediction year for values of the entropy level and the proportions of trips in a given stratification of the cells of the trip matrix estimated in the base year. The problem of uncertain data in the prediction year is handled by replacing equality constraints for the marginal totals in the prediction year by interval constraints. Computational results are given for trip data from the Linköping area.

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