Speculation in agricultural land

Abstract

Agricultural land prices in many developed countries rose and then fell dramatically over a relatively short period of time in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Most of the models in the literature that describe the dynamic behaviour of agricultural land prices suggest that these sharp price movements were not completely due to market fundamentals. Many attribute part of this price volatility to speculation. This phenomenon is investigated by estimating a general regime-switching model that nests many types of speculative behaviour as special cases. We find strong evidence to support a partially collapsing bubbles story about Irish agricultural land prices.Speculation, Fads, Bubbles, Farmland prices