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Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts

By Masahiro Ashiya

Abstract

Past literature casts doubt on the ability of long-term macroeconomic forecasts to predict the direction of change. We re-examine this issue using the Japanese GDP forecast data of 37 institutions, and find that their 16-month-ahead forecasts contain valuable information on whether the growth rate accelerates or not. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley _ Sons, Ltd.

DOI identifier: 10.1002/for.980
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