Article thumbnail

Time to Dropout From College: A Hazard Model with Endogenous Waiting

By Dennis A. Ahlburg, Brian P. Mccall and In-gang Na

Abstract

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we investigate the college attendance, dropout, and graduate behavior of high school graduates. Bivariate duration models, which allow the unobserved determinants of spell durations to be correlated across spells, are developed and used to study the impact of the waiting time from high school graduation until college enrollment on college dropout and graduation rates. We find that delaying college entry after graduating high school significantly increases the chances of college dropout and reduces the probability of attaining a four-year degree. Among those who first enroll in four-year institutions, delaying college entry by one year after high school graduation reduces the probability of graduating with a four- year degree by up to 32 percent in models that account for the endogeneity of delaying enrollment. There is also empirical evidence that the negative impact of delayed enrollment on graduation probabilities varies by Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) score with the largest estimated impact of delaying occurring for those with low AFQT scores.

OAI identifier:

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.

Suggested articles

Citations

  1. (1999). Answers in the Tool Box: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor’s Degree Attainment.
  2. Audrey (1995b), “Hazard Model Estimates of the Decision to Reenroll in
  3. (1989). Changes in the Structure of Wages During the 1980s: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations,” Working Paper no.
  4. (1972). College Dropout Identification: An Economic Analysis,”
  5. (1994). College Entry by Blacks since 1970: The Role of College Costs, Family Background, and the Returns to Education,”
  6. (1989). College Persistence and Degree Attainment for 1980 High school Graduates: Hazards for Transfers, Stopouts, and Part-timers,
  7. (1989). College Persistence and Degree Attainment for 1980 High School Graduates: Hazards for Transfers, Stopouts, and Part-timers,"
  8. (1997). Dimensions of Inequality: Facts on the U.S. Distribution of Earnings, Income and Wealth,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Spring:
  9. (1999). Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion,” Working Paper no.
  10. (1999). Does it Pay to Attend an Elite Private College?”
  11. (1988). Economic Duration Data and Hazard Function,”
  12. (1979). Education and Self-Selection,”
  13. (2001). Educational Achievement and BlackWhite Inequality,” Statistical Analysis Report
  14. (1985). Family Structure and the Reproduction of Poverty,”
  15. (1990). Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risks Models,”
  16. (1993). Is College Financial Aid Equitable and Efficient?,”
  17. (1984). Job Matching and Occupational
  18. (1995). Labor-Market Returns to Two- and Four-year College,”
  19. (1986). Layoffs, Recalls and the Duration of Unemployment,”
  20. (1993). Leaving College,
  21. (1998). Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of
  22. (1990). Occupational Matching: A Test of
  23. (1988). Postsecondary Enrollment, Persistence, and Attainment for 1972, 1980, and
  24. (1989). Schooling as Experimentation:
  25. (1992). Semiparametric Proportional Hazards Estimation of Competing Risks Models with Time-Varying Covariates,”
  26. (2002). Simulating the Longitudinal Effects of Changes
  27. (1988). Stages of Student Departure: Reflections on the Longitudinal
  28. (1993). The Demand for and Return to Education when Education Outcomes are Uncertain,”
  29. (1984). The High School Dropout Decision and Its Wage Consequences,”
  30. (1998). The Student Aid Game
  31. (1992). Time-varying Effects of Recall Expectation, a Reemployment Bonus, and Job Counseling on Unemployment Durations,”