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Betriebliche Erwartungen zur Ausbildungs- und Beschäftigungsentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland : Ergebnisse des IAB-Betriebspanels 1997 (Company expectations concerning the development of training and employment in western and eastern Germany : results of the IAB establishment panel survey 1997)

By Lutz Bellmann and Manfred Lahner


"In this company expectations for 1998 concerning employment and training are analysed with the aid of descriptive and multivariate procedures, and separately for western and eastern Germany. The data for this study was collected in the fifth wave of the IAB establishment panel in western Germany, from 4100 enterprises, and in the second wave in eastern Germany, from 4700 enterprises. In spite of the continued economic recovery, the situation on the labour market is improving only hesitantly on the whole, according to the expectations of the establishments questioned. The development is proceeding in quite a complex way. The drop in employment in the majority of industries is not offset by the positive develop-ments in some service industries. For the period up to June 1998 employment decreases in all establishment size groups in the new Länder. In the old Länder only establishments in the size groups of 20 - 49 employees and 1 - 4 employees show an upward deviation from this trend. Employment growth or decline in an individual company depends on 'company variables', such as the development of the volume of business, the state of technology of the industrial plant, the company wage level and the qualification structure. As regards the effect of the company variables a large agreement can be seen between eastern and western German companies: companies with positive expectations concerning the development of the volume of business, with modern technology and a low wage bill per employee plan to increase their work force and vice versa. In spite of diverse activities the situation on the market for training places for the training year 1996/97 can be described on the whole as unsatisfactory. In the IAB establishment panel the enterprises were asked whether they wished to expand or reduce training in the coming two years. Here on the whole a more favourable picture emerged for both parts of the country. The balances of the enterprises expecting to increase or resume company training and those expecting to reduce or discontinue it are positive. There are, however, considerable sectoral dif-ferences and differences specific to particular enterprise sizes: In the industries which in western Germany have negative balances of employment expectations which are well above the value for the economy as a whole, the balances of increases and decreases in training are, apart from a few exceptions, also in the negative area. In the new Länder in the traditionally training-orientated manufacturing fields the positive balances of increase and decrease in employment and training are just as parallel as the nega-tive expectations of training and employment in parts of the service sectors. - In western Germany, with only a few exceptions, in the larger enterprises the positive balances predominate towards expansion of training, whereas in eastern Germany this positive trend is only found in enterprises with fewer than 20 employees. By means of the multivariate analysis it is possible to detect the positive influence of company employment expectations on company training expectations only for the old Länder. These results support the thesis of a connection between the development of employment and training at company level in the old Länder but not in the new Länder. According to this thesis an economic stimulation on the labour market would not necessarily lead to an easing of the situation on the market for training places in the new Länder." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Beschäftigungsentwicklung - Prognose, IAB-Betriebspanel, Betriebsgröße, Wirtschaftszweige, Ausbildungsplatzangebot, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

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