Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?

By Michael Iacono and David Levinson


In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the inßuence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a speciÞc location. The models are esti- mated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their inßuence. We Þnd (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some inßuence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses.Land use, Twin Cities (Minnesota), Mathematical models, urban growth

OAI identifier:

Suggested articles


  1. (2002). A Cellular Automata Model to Simulate Development Density for Urban Planning. Environment & Planning B: Planning and Design,
  2. (2007). Area-Based Models of New Highway Route Growth.
  3. (2005). Current and Future Patterns of Land Use Change in the Coastal Zone of New Jersey.
  4. (1990). Estimated Regression Model of Land Use Change Without Road Network Attributes,
  5. (1999). Geographic Information System Methodology for Assessing Growth Effects of Highway Improvements.
  6. (1970). Highway Improvements and Land Development in Minnesota’s Greater Twin Cities Area,
  7. (2005). ILUTE: An Operational Prototype of a Comprehensive Microsimulation Model of Urban Systems.
  8. (2000). Modeling the Relationships Between Land Use and Land Cover on Private Lands in the Upper Midwest,
  9. (2008). Neighborhood Impacts on Land Use Change: A Multinomial Logit Model of Spatial Relationships.
  10. (2005). Paving New Ground: A Markov
  11. (1998). The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model, Part 1: Model Logic and Theory. Environment & Planning B: Planning and Design,
  12. (1998). The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model, Part 2: Specification and Calibration Results of the Land Use Change Submodel. Environment & Planning B: Planning and Design,
  13. (2002). Use Change Analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China Using Satellite Remote Sensing, GIS, and Stochastic Modeling.
  14. (1996). Use Model for Santiago City.
  15. (2004). Using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model to Simulate the Impacts of Future Policy

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.