Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables

By Kay Peters, Sönke Albers and V. Kumar


Companies employ international diffusion models to assess the local market potential and local diffusion speed to support their decision making on market entry. After their entry into a country, they use the model forecasts for their performance controlling. To this end, empirical applications of international diffusion models aim to link differential diffusion patterns across countries to various exogenous drivers. In the literature, macro- and socioeconomic variables like population characteristics, culture, economic development, etc. have been linked to differential penetration developments across countries. But as companies cannot influence these drivers, their marketing decisions that shape national diffusion patterns are ignored. Is this reasonable? What then, is the role of marketing instruments in an international diffusion context? We address this issue and compare the influence of these prominent exogenous drivers of international diffusion with that of industry and marketing-mix variables. To account for all of these factors and simultaneously accommodate the influence of varying cross-country interactions, we develop a more flexible yet parsimonious model of international diffusion. Finally, to avoid technical issues in implementing spatially dependent error terms we introduce the test concept of Moran's I to international diffusion model. We demonstrate that the lead-lag effect in conjunction with spatial neighborhood effects controls most of the spatial autocorrelation. Using this combined approach we find that --- for cellulars --- industry and marketing-mix variables explain international diffusion patterns better than macro- and socioeconomic drivers. --

OAI identifier:

Suggested articles


  1. (1999). A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets. Marketing Sci.
  2. (1992). A choice-based approach to the diffusion of a service: forecasting fax penetration by market segments. Marketing Sci. 11(1) 39-53. Specifications on the extensive data sources are available upon request from the authors.
  3. (1990). A diffusion model incorporating product benefits, price, income and information.
  4. (2002). a genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers.
  5. (1983). A market entry timing model for new technologies.
  6. (1990). A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models.
  7. (1993). A new approach to country segmentation utilizing multinational diffusion patterns.
  8. (1969). A new product growth model for consumer durables.
  9. (2006). A piecewise-diffusion model of new-product demands.
  10. (1998). An empirical comparison of new product trial forecasting models.
  11. (2005). An exploratory examination of the influence of national culture on cross-national product diffusion.
  12. (1976). Beyond culture.
  13. (1997). Bias and systematic change in the parameter estimates of macro-level diffusion models. Marketing Sci.
  14. (2008). Can the poor afford mobile telephony? Evidence from Latin America. Telecommunications Policy.
  15. (1996). Capturing the cross-national learning effect: an analysis of an industrial technology diffusion.
  16. (1997). Cellular communications: worldwide market development.
  17. Civil War 0.016 0.091 0.0 0.8 Avg Democratic Institution Index 5.757 3.703 0 10 Dummy Government -
  18. (2003). Consumption externalities and diffusion in pharmaceutical markets: antiulcer drugs.
  19. (2001). Cross-country technology diffusion: the case of computers.
  20. (1991). Cross-national analysis of diffusion of consumer durables in pacific rim countries.
  21. (1998). Cross-national diffusion research: what do we know and how certain are we?
  22. (2003). Demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets: the case of motion pictures.
  23. (1987). Diffusion and advertising: the German telephone campaign.
  24. (2003). Diffusion of innovations under supply constraints.
  25. (2004). Diffusion of new pharmaceutical drugs in developing and developed nations.
  26. (1975). Dynamic price models for new-product planning.
  27. (1990). Effect of price on the demand for durables: modeling, estimation and findings.
  28. (1989). Entscheidungshilfen für den persönlichen Verkauf. Duncker
  29. (2005). Forecasting cross-population innovation diffusion: a baysian approach.
  30. (2002). Geographic localization of international technology diffusion.
  31. (2003). Global diffusion models: back to the future.
  32. (2000). Global diffusion of technological innovations: a coupled-hazard approach.
  33. (2008). Global takeoff of new products: culture, wealth or vanishing differences? Marketing Sci.
  34. (2006). Globalization and the digital divide: the roles of structural conduciveness and global connection in internet diffusion.
  35. (2000). Globalization”: modeling technology adoption timing across countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
  36. (2008). HiPlains
  37. (1989). Incorporating consumer price expectations in diffusion models.
  38. (1991). Incorporating distribution into new product diffusion models.
  39. (1991). Innovation Diffusion in the presence of supply restrictions. Marketing Sci.
  40. (1994). Innovation in a borderless global market: will the 1992 unification of the European Community accelerate diffusion of new ideas, products, and technologies? Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
  41. (1982). International comparison of growth in demand for a new durable consumer product.
  42. (1983). International diffusion of steel technologies - time-lag and the speed of diffusion.
  43. (2002). Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries. Marketing Sci.
  44. (2008). Is global diffusion taking off? A review and insights for future research. Working Paper.
  45. (1997). Learning effect in multinational diffusion of consumer durables: an exploratory investigation.
  46. (1988). Long term view of the diffusion of durables: a study of the role of price and adoption influence processes via tests of nested models.
  47. (2002). Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply uncertainty.
  48. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing Sci.
  49. (1997). Mixing behavior in crosscountry diffusion. Marketing Sci.
  50. (1999). Mobile cellular communications in the Southern African region.
  51. (1993). Mobile communications in the U.S. and Europe.
  52. (2006). Mobile termination charges: calling party pays versus receiving party pays. Telecommunications Policy.
  53. (1989). Modeling multinational diffusion patterns: an efficient methodology. Marketing Sci.
  54. (2006). Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - a 25-year review.
  55. (2002). Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data.
  56. (2001). Modelling the development of supply-restricted telecommunications markets.
  57. (2000). Multimarket and global diffusion. New product diffusion models.
  58. (2002). Multinational diffusion models: an alternative framework.
  59. (1990). New product diffusion models in marketing: a review and directions for research.
  60. (1986). Non-linear least squares estimation of new product diffusion models. Marketing Sci.
  61. (2008). Number of different climate zones (1-14) 2.590 2.041 1 10 Climate - Af (moist) 0.137 0.344 0 1 Climate - Am (Monsoon)
  62. (2008). of Res. in Marketing.
  63. (1996). Optimal strategies for general price-quality decision models of new products with learning production costs.
  64. (1996). Order of entry, trial diffusion, and elasticity dynamics: an empirical case. Marketing Letters.
  65. (2008). Peters Albers Kumar (int Diffusion) - final v1
  66. Power Distance Index (rel. to average)
  67. (1992). Price elasticity dynamics over the adoption life cycle.
  68. (1999). Pricing patterns of cellular phones and phonecalls: a segment-level analysis.
  69. Religion, Ethnic Groups (CLRE)
  70. (1991). Requirement of dimensional consistency in model equations: diffusion models incorporating price and their applications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
  71. (2004). Social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion: a meta-analytic test. Marketing Sci.
  72. (1988). Spatial Econometrics, methods and models.
  73. (2005). Spatial models in marketing. Marketing Letters.
  74. (1998). Staged estimation of international diffusion models. An application to global cellular telephone adoption. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
  75. (2001). Table A1. Descriptives on Countries (a) First Year
  76. (2005). Tariff structures and access substitution of mobile cellular for fixed line in South Africa. Telecommunications Policy.
  77. (1993). The diffusion of flexible manufacturing systems
  78. (1998). The diffusion of innovations in protected industries: the textile industry.
  79. (2001). The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union.
  80. (1993). The diffusion of process innovations in industrialized and developing countries: a case study of the world textile and steel industries. World Dev.
  81. (2003). The effect of national culture on the adoption of innovations. Marketing Letters.
  82. (2001). The evolution of markets under entry and standards regulation -the case of global mobile telecommunications.
  83. (2005). The international diffusion of new technologies: a multitechnology analysis of latecomer advantage and global economic integration.
  84. (1980). The relationship between diffusion rates, experience curves, and demand elasticities for consumer durable technology innovations.
  85. (1999). The relationship between mass media availability and the multicountry diffusion of consumer products.
  86. (1998). The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion.
  87. (2005). The role of seeding in multi-market entry.
  88. (2004). Understanding and managing international growth of new products.
  89. (2001). Unobserved retailer behavior in multimarket data: joint spatial dependence in market shares and promotion variables. Marketing Sci.
  90. (1995). Waterfall and sprinkler new-product strategies in competitive global markets.
  91. (1994). Why the Bass model fits without decision variables.

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.