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Projecting Livestock Numbers

By Rod Forbes and Peter Gardiner

Abstract

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) undertakes forecasts and projections of livestock numbers as part of the twice yearly contribution to The Treasury’s economic and fiscal updates. MAF’s Pastoral Supply Response Model (PSRM) was recently re-developed and used for the first time in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update round of 2004. The PSRM projects annual inventory numbers as at 30 June, births and livestock numbers for slaughter. The paper discusses the PSRM, the post-model adjustments process, and the feed through to a simplistic assessment of land use changes within pasture areas.Livestock numbers, forecasting, supply response, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

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