Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

By James W. Richardson, Brian K. Herbst, Joe L. Outlaw, David P. Anderson, Steven L. Klose and II Robert Chope Gill


The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.Risk and Uncertainty,

OAI identifier:
Downloaded from

Suggested articles


  1. (2001). Dumas Texas Area Ethanol Feasibility Study. Cotopaxi CO: Bryan and Bryan International,
  2. (2004). Ethanol Plant Development Handbook Fourth Edition. Cotopaxi CO: Bryan and Bryan International,
  3. (2006). Economic and Technical Analysis of Ethanol Dry Milling: Model Description.”
  4. (2006). Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand.
  5. (2006). Food and Agriculture Policy Research
  6. (2002). A Stochastic Feasibility Study of Texas Ethanol Production: Analysis of Texas State Legislature Ethanol Subsidy. Texas A&M University,
  7. (2004). Coping With Risk in Agriculture. Oxfordshire:
  8. (2003). The Feasibility of Ethanol Production in Texas. Texas A&M University,
  9. (2006). Agricultural Economics Association Meeting,
  10. (1997). Ethanol Programs: A Program Evaluation Report.” St.
  11. (1970). Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal.” World Bank Staff Occasional Papers (11), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The John Hopkins
  12. (1970). Techniques for Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty.” World Bank Staff Occasional Papers (10), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
  13. (2006). Simulation for Applied Risk Management.”
  14. An Applied Procedure for Estimating and Simulating Multivariate Empirical (MVE) Probability Distributions in Farm-Level Risk Assessment and Policy Analysis.”
  15. (1976). Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty.”
  16. (2006). Simetar: Simulation for Excel to Analyze Risk.”
  17. (2006). Fagen Inc. Personal communication.
  18. (1998). USDA’s
  19. (1998). CCH Federal Taxation: Comprehensive Topics.
  20. (2003). Factors Associated with Success of Fuel Ethanol Producers.”
  21. (2002). of Agriculture. Feed Grains Data Delivery Service. Available at Washington DC,
  22. (2002). of Energy. “Alternative Fuel Vehicle Fleet Buyer’s Guide: Incentives, Regulations, Contracts.” Available at:,
  23. (2002). Employment and Economic Benefits of Ethanol Production in
  24. (1996). Simulation Modeling Using @Risk.”
  25. (2004). Corn Based Ethanol Costs and Margins Attachment 1.” Agricultural Marketing Research

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.