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"Measures of the Real GDP of US Trading Partners: Methodology and Results"

By Claudio H. dos Santos, Anwar Shaikh and Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

This paper provides the details of the construction of new quarterly measures of the real GDPs of the 36 US trading partners that are taken into consideration by the Federal Reserve in its "broad exchange rate" indexes. These new measures have some important advantages. First, they allow the construction of various income aggregates and sub-aggregates, which makes it possible, for example, to match the Federal Reserve's "broad," "major-currency," and "other important" trading partner effective exchange rates and, more broadly, to discuss the geographical and geopolitical determinants of US trade. Second, they allow the construction of variants of the two different types of measures that are utilized in the literature, namely direct and export-share-weighted sums of trading-partner real GDPs. Finally, given that our new measures of GDP for these countries can be directly compared to each other, they can be of interest for other researchers who need a consistent dataset on a quarterly basis.

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  1. (Euros) 13.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  2. (Euros): 11.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  3. (Euros): 12.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  4. (2000). 1993."System of National Accounts 1993." U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission.
  5. (1990). 8.1 - Raw Series Used: A
  6. 9/15/03 3:39 PM Working Paper 387 Page 21 of 40 http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/387.htmlB - IFS quarterly volume index (1995=100) from
  7. 9/15/03 3:39 PM Working Paper 387 Page 30 of 40 http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/387.htmlB - IFS Quarterly volume index (1995=100) from
  8. (1995). Adjustments Made: The series was annualized, extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  9. (1993). Aggregation: Aggregate Production Functions and Related Topics."
  10. (1998). As mentioned before, these weights are used to calculate the Federal Reserve's "broad exchange rate index." They are "updated annually to incorporate changes in trade patterns" (see Leahy,
  11. (1998). As put by Leahy
  12. AUSTRALIA 2.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  13. (1995). AUSTRIA 3.1- Raw Series Used: A -
  14. BELGIUM/LUXEMBOURG (Euros): 4.1 - Raw Series Used: 4.1.1. - Belgium A - IFS Quarterly volume index (1995=100) from1980Q1 until 2002Q3.
  15. (1995). C Nat.Currency IFS None 436..RF.ZF... National Currency per U.S. Dollar D Index Number
  16. (1997). CANADA: 6.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  17. (1996). CHILE: 7.1 - Raw Series Used: A - Chilean quarterly GDP at
  18. (1994). COLOMBIA 10.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  19. (1996). Currency WEO Billions W528NGDP GDP at current prices C U.S. dollars WEO Billions W528NGDPD GDP at current prices 33.2 - Adjustments Made: IMF's World Economic Outlook annual GDP at
  20. Denmark (Not included in the Fed's "Broad Exchange Rate Index") 37.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  21. (1998). Do Exchange Rates and Foreign Incomes Matter for Exports at the State Level?" 38(4).
  22. (2002). E-Views 4.0 Help."
  23. (2003). Economic Report of the President.
  24. (2002). forecast, re-based into
  25. (2003). Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank. "Currency Weights Broad Index of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar." (various dates). Available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/
  26. (1998). http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/387.htmlNOTES: 1. See the Federal Reserve's "H.10 Statistical Release" (various dates) and Leahy
  27. (1995). http://www.levy.org/docs/wrkpap/papers/387.htmlThe series was annualized and converted to
  28. (1995). IFS Annual GDP at
  29. (2001). IFS annual GDP at 1985 prices from 1970 until
  30. (1987). IFS annual GDP at 1987 prices from
  31. (1980). IFS annual GDP at 1993 prices from
  32. (1999). IFS Annual GDP at 1995 prices from
  33. (2001). IFS Annual GDP at 1995 prices from1970 to
  34. (2001). IFS Annual volume index (1995=100) 1970 until
  35. (1970). IFS annual volume index (1995=100) from
  36. (2001). IFS annual volume index (1995=100) from 1970 until
  37. IFS Annual volume index (1995=100) from 1970 until 2001. D - IFS exchange rate (Drachmas per U.S. Dollars on average).
  38. IFS Annual volume index (1995=100) from1970 to 2001. F - IFS exchange rate (National Currency per U.S. Dollar on average).
  39. (1995). IFS Quarterly GDP at
  40. (1995). IFS Quarterly volume index
  41. (1995). IFS quarterly volume index (1995=100) from
  42. IFS Quarterly volume index (1995=100) from 1970Q1 until 2002Q3.
  43. IFS Quarterly volume index (1995=100) from 1970Q1 until 2002Q3. C - IFS exchange rate (National Currency per U.S. Dollar on average).
  44. IFS Quarterly volume index (1995=100) from 1970Q1 until 2002Q4. C - IFS Quarterly GDP deflator. D - IFS exchange rate (National Currency per U.S. Dollar on average).
  45. IFS quarterly volume index (1995=100) from 1984Q3 until 2002Q3.
  46. IFS quarterly volume index (1995=100) from 1988Q1 until 2002Q3.
  47. IFS quarterly volume index (1995=100) from1986Q1 until 2002Q3.
  48. (1988). INDIA: 15.1 - Raw Series Used: A - IFS Annual GDP at 1993-1994 prices from
  49. (1993). INDONESIA: 16.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  50. (2001). Interim Report: Notes on the U.S. Trade and Balance of Payments Deficits." Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y.: The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
  51. (2003). International Financial Statistics CD-ROM."
  52. IRELAND: 17.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  53. ISRAEL: 18.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  54. ITALY (Euros): 19.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  55. JAPAN 20.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  56. KONG): 9.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  57. KOREA: 21.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  58. (2002). Luxembourg WDI annual GDP at 1995 prices in 1995 dollars series was extended until
  59. MALAYSIA: 22.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  60. (1995). NETHERLANDS (in Euros) 24.1 - Raw Series Used: A - IFS Quarterly (chained,
  61. (2003). p. 33) cites "personal communication from Federal Reserve" as the source of his data, without any further details. The Federal Reserve definition of "major" U.S. trading partners is discussed in our subsequent text.
  62. PHILIPPINES 25.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  63. (1999). prices (from
  64. (1984). prices (from 1984 until 2000) was extended backwards using the index series.
  65. (1995). PRICES 24.2 - Adjustments Made: Annual GDP series was extended backwards using the index series and interpolated quarterly. Quarterly chained real GDP
  66. (1990). prices from
  67. (1995). prices in 1995 dollars available from World Development Indicators was converted to billions and interpolated. The two interpolated series were then "merged" in 1993:1.
  68. (1995). prices in 1995 dollars from
  69. (1995). prices series (beginning in
  70. (1990). prices series (including the 2002 forecast) was interpolated quarterly, re-based into
  71. (1995). prices series was annualized and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  72. (1990). prices series was annualized and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then re-based into
  73. (1995). prices series was annualized and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then seasonally adjusted and extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  74. (1995). prices series was annualized and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then seasonally adjusted, extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  75. (1995). prices series was annualized, and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then seasonally adjusted, extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  76. (1995). prices series was annualized, and extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then seasonally adjusted. The series was extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  77. (1995). prices series was annualized, extended backwards using the index series and extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  78. (1993). prices series was converted to billions of national currency, extended backwards using the annual volume index and then interpolated quarterly.
  79. (1996). prices series was extended backwards using the annual volume index and then interpolated quarterly.
  80. (1995). prices series was extended backwards using the annual volume index and then interpolated quarterly. IFS quarterly GDP at
  81. (2000). prices series was extended backwards using the annual volume index and then interpolated quarterly. Quarterly GDP at
  82. (1995). prices series was extended backwards using the index series (that was seasonally adjusted). The resulting series was then extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  83. (1997). prices series was extended backwards using the index series. The resulting series was then re-based into
  84. (1985). prices series was interpolated quarterly.
  85. (1990). prices series was obtained from the volume index and the annual GDP at
  86. (1988). prices series was seasonally adjusted, annualized and extended backwards using interpolated quarterly data. The resulting series was then re-based into
  87. (1993). prices series was seasonally adjusted, extended backwards using interpolated quarterly data and re-based into
  88. (1995). prices was annualized, seasonally adjusted and extended backwards using interpolated quarterly data from the annual series (from 1987Q4 until 1970Q1). The resulting series was extended until 2002Q4 using the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  89. (1987). prices was converted to billions of national currency, extended backwards using the index series and interpolated quarterly.
  90. (1995). prices was converted to billions of national currency, extended backwards using the index series, and interpolated quarterly.
  91. (1993). prices was extended backwards using the index series and forward using the WEO data. The resulting series was then re-based into
  92. (1988). prices was extended backwards using the index series and interpolated quarterly.
  93. (1990). prices was extended backwards using the index series, converted to billions of national currency, and interpolated quarterly.
  94. (2001). Raw Series Used: A -
  95. Raw Series Used: A - IPEA Quarterly volume index (1990=100)
  96. (1995). ref) "real" GDP from1999 to
  97. (1995). RUSSIA 27.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  98. (1996). SAUDI ARABIA 28.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  99. SPAIN (in Euros) 30.1- Raw Series Used: A -
  100. SWEDEN 31.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  101. SWITZERLAND 32.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  102. (1996). TAIWAN 33.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  103. THAILAND 34.1 - Raw Series Used:
  104. (1988). The IMF series actually goes back to 1977Q1, but the problems with this series (including inconsistencies between quarterly and annual series) led us to drop it before
  105. (2002). The resulting series was then re-based into 1995 prices (using the relevant GDP deflator) and interpolated quarterly. The series was extended until 2002Q4 using interpolated quarterly data obtained from the (also re-based) IMF's World Economic Outlook
  106. (2001). The resulting series was then re-based into 1995 prices (using the relevant GDP deflator) and interpolated quarterly. The series was extended until 2002Q4 using interpolated quarterly data obtained from the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  107. (2002). The resulting series was then re-based into 1995 prices data (using the relevant GDP deflator), extended until 2002Q4 using interpolated quarterly data from the IMF's World Economic Outlook
  108. The series actually goes back to 1977:1, but we chose not to use it before 1988. See the Appendix for details.
  109. The series for Argentina is, however, interrupted in 1980:4. See the Appendix for details.
  110. (1990). This last series is from the Brazilian Ministry of Planning's "Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)" web page at http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ 27. The Brazilian national currency changed twice between
  111. This last series is from the Chilean national statistics web page at http://www.ine.cl/11-pib/ipib.htm 29. We chose not to use the IFS GDP at 1970 prices series available from 1975Q1 until 1991Q1.
  112. (1975). This measure was developed by Francis Cripps for use in the Cambridge World Economic Model. It consists of quarterly estimates export-share weighted U.S. trading partner real GDP, in constant
  113. UK 35.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  114. (1984). VENEZUELA: 36.1 - Raw Series Used: A -
  115. (2001). was extended backwards using an index series and interpolated quarterly. Quarterly GDP at
  116. (2001). was extended backwards using an index series and interpolated quarterly. The resulting series was then re-based into
  117. (2001). was extended backwards using the index series.
  118. WDI Annual GDP at 1995 prices in 1995 dollars from 1970 until 2000. C - IFS exchange rate (National Currency per U.S. Dollar on average).
  119. We chose not to use the IFS GDP at 1970 prices series available from 1975:1 to 1991:1. See the Appendix for details.
  120. We chose not to use the IFS quarterly GDP at 1993-1994 factor prices series (available from 1996Q4 until 2002Q2 and not seasonally adjusted).
  121. We chose not to use the quarterly GDP at factor prices series available from 1996:4 onwards. See the Appendix for details.
  122. (1996). WEO Annual GDP at
  123. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at 1984 prices from
  124. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at 1993 prices from
  125. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at 1993-1994 factor prices from
  126. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at 1996-1997 prices from
  127. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at 1999 prices from
  128. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at current prices from
  129. WEO Annual GDP at current prices from 1970 until 2004. C - IFS exchange rate (National Currency per U.S. Dollar on average).
  130. (1970). WEO Annual GDP at current prices in U.S. dollars from
  131. (2001). WEO Annual Real Rate of
  132. (2002). WEO series include forecasts for
  133. (2003). World Economic Outlook Databank." April. Available at http:// www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/data/index.htm#3
  134. (1980). World Trade and Finance." December. Cambridge Economic Policy Review.

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