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Uma Nota sobre Erros de Previsão da Inflação de Curto Prazo

By Emanuel Kohlscheen

Abstract

This note shows that the unbiasedness and the weak rationality hypotheses are not rejected for the inflation forecasts surveyed by the Central Bank when the forecast horizon is one month. However, as in other countries, a clear pattern of auto-correlation of forecast errors is found. Furthermore, increases (decreases) in inflation are systematically associated with underestimations (overestimations) of inflation in the following month. This is true for both, the full sample of forecasters and the sample that is restricted to the 5 institutions with best forecasting performance, suggesting that models in which past realizations of inflation have greater weight in the formation of average expectations are more accurate than the assumption of rational expectations. Models aimed at explaining how expectations are formed should be able to explain these stylized facts as well as the hysteresis of forecasts.

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