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Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making

By Jiří Fotr and Lenka Švecová

Abstract

Importance of risk and uncertainty in present period of dynamic changes grows. The article deals with risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making. First the concepts of risk and uncertainty and possibilities of their measurement are discussed. Further shortcomings of strategic decision making from the point of view risk integration are described. The emphasis is on discussion of decision making methods under risk and uncertainty (including decision tables, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, real options, decision trees, multicriteria utility function under risk, theory of games and methods of portfolio development) as supporting tools for strategic decision making. In the last part of the article some recommendations for integration of risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making based on scenario approach are suggested.risk, uncertainty, risk measurement, strategic decision making, scenario planning, decision support

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