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Macroeconometric Policy Modeling for India: A Review of Some Analytical Issues

By V. Pandit

Abstract

Macroeconomic modelling is generally motivated by two objectives: forecasting and more significantly, policy analysis. In pursuit of both these objectives, every model must ideally satisfy four criteria. First and foremost, it must fit into a theoretical framework. Second, the actual specification of the model must reflect a clear understanding of the contextual framework within which policies are formulated and executed along with an envisaged process of adjustment. Third, it is essential that the model is built on a firm and rich data base and, finally, the estimated structural model must adequately utilise the rigors and sophistications of econometric methodology.Unfortunately this is a tall order which can seldom be met.[CDE DSE WP NO 74]Macroeconomic modelling; vector autoregression (VAR) modelling; econometric methodology; Cowles Commission Diebold; Price Behavior; Weintranb; monetary and fiscal policy; modus operandi; IEG-DSE model; World Project LINK system

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