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The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF

By Masahiro Ashiya


A considerable number of studies have investigated the directional accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts, and have obtained mixed results for long-term forecasts. This paper re-examines this issue using the IMF forecasts for the G7 countries, and find that combining the long-term and the short-term forecasts significantly improves the directional accuracy.

DOI identifier: 10.1080/1350485022000040998
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