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By David Leech and John Scott


This paper provides preliminary estimates of the productivity impact of intelligent machine technology (IMT) and the rate of return to IMT research and development (R&D) over the next two decades. The paper adapts economists' traditional productivity growth model to enable the use of industrial experts' forecasts of a few key parameters of the model to form the estimates of productivity growth and rate of return. Respondents - from a sample of firms operating in IMT development and applications in the automotive, aerospace, and capital construction industries - anticipate that IMT will generate substantial productivity growth over the next two decades, and the estimated social rates of return to IMT R&D are substantial.Intelligent machine technology, Productivity growth, Research and development,

DOI identifier: 10.1080/10438590701785637
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