Location of Repository

On the Use of Density Forecasts to Identify Asymmetry in Forecasters' Loss Functions

By Kajal Lahiri and Fushang Liu

Abstract

Abstract: We consider how to use information from reported density forecasts from surveys to identify asymmetry in forecasters' loss functions. We show that, for the three common loss functions - Lin-Lin, Linex, and Quad-Quad - we can infer the direction of loss asymmetry by just comparing point forecasts and the central tendency (mean or median) of the underlying density forecasts. If we know the entire distribution of the density forecast, we can calculate the loss function parameters based on the first order condition of forecast optimality. This method is applied to forecasts for annual real output growth and inflation obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that forecasters treat underprediction of real output growth more dearly than overprediction, reverse is true for inflation.

OAI identifier:

Suggested articles

Preview

Citations

  1. (2001). A real-time data set for macroeconomists.
  2. (2008). Biases in macroeconomic forecasts: Irrationality or asymmetric loss?
  3. (2006). Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts.
  4. (1987). On the normality of probability distribution and GNP forecasts.

To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.