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METAS PARA INFLAÇÃO E VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS: UMA AVALIAÇÃO EMPÍRICA

By Helder Ferreira de Mendonça

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to analyze if the adoption of inflation targeting implies changes in the behavior of several macroeconomic variables, especially in the unemployment rate. For this, empirical evidences based on a set of fourteen countries that adopted explicit inflation targeting are shown. Furthermore, a particular analysis for the Brazilian case through a VAR that considers the following variables: unemployment rate, Selic, inflation, industrial production, and inflation targeting credibility, is made. Among several findings taken from international experience, it is observed that there is the possibility of unemployment-inflation trade-off becoming relevant after the adoption of targets. In relation to theBrazilian case, the main point for the attainment of good results for the economy is the neces sity of the monetary regime having a high credibility.

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