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Some evidence on the countercyclicality of the trade balance

By Liam Lenten and Imad Moosa

Abstract

The cyclical behaviour of the trade balance is examined using quarterly data for eight countries covering the period 1960:1-1995:3. Two methods are employed: the calculation of the correlation coefficient between the HP-filtered series and the estimation of a structural time series model. Both methods produce results which are supportive of the hypothesis of countercyclicality of the trade balance.

DOI identifier: 10.1080/135048599353078
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