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Predicting success in college on the basis of the results of unified national exam

By Oleg Poldin


This paper presents the results of econometric study on predicting first-year grade point average and dropout probability with national examination (EGE) results at the bachelor program in Economics in the Higher School of Economics. The use of a sum of four exams — math, social studies, Russian language and foreign language — shows worse fitting than a sum of three exams, excluding foreign language. In models with separate exams as regressors, the greatest effect on dependent variable provides math admission; entrance examination; predicting GPA; Tobit model

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