Skip to main content
Article thumbnail
Location of Repository

Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing

By Sanjay Basu

Abstract

The subprime crisis has reminded us that effective stress tests should not only combine subjective scenarios with historical data, but also be probabilistic. In this paper, we combine three hypothetical shocks, of varying degrees, with more than six years of daily data on USD-INR and Euro-INR. Our objective is to compare six simulation-based stress models for foreign exchange positions. We find that while volatility-weighted historical simulation is the best model for volatility persistence, jump diffusion based Monte Carlo simulation is better at capturing correlation breakdown. Loss estimates from very fat-tailed distributions are not sensitive to the severity of stress scenarios.Risk management Volatility updation Tail diversification Simulation models Fat-tailed distributions

OAI identifier:
Download PDF:
Sorry, we are unable to provide the full text but you may find it at the following location(s):
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/s... (external link)
  • Suggested articles


    To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.