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THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET

By Lutz Kilian and Cheolbeom Park

Abstract

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long-run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry-specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand. Copyright � (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

DOI identifier: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x
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