Envisioning the future of water in Europe - the SCENES project

Abstract

The aim of this article is to describe the background and main elements of the SCENES project (Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States) together with the approach for selecting, constructing and evaluating water scenarios up to 2050. SCENES is a multi-faceted integrated project that aims to address the complex questions about the future of Europe’s water resources. It takes an integrated approach by combining and balancing the many dimensions of Europe’s water futures, including hydrological, ecological, economic, cultural, social, climatic, financial and other dimensions. The project is implemented in three phases. In the first phase (fast-track) largely extant scenarios are selected, and readily available information on drivers and policies information assembled and run through an existing quantitative model of pan-European water availability. In the second phase more refined scenarios are developed at both the pan-European and regional scales, with scenario panels providing ‘enriched’ scenarios. The third phase involves a synthesis of the information and dissemination of the project outputs to external stakeholders and end-users. In the SCENES project an evaluation of the participatory scenario processes is carried out giving us new information on the functioning of the science-policy interface, and on the challenges the European water management may confront in the future