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Are currency crises anticipated? Evidence from Mexican government guaranteed Eurobonds 1993-95

By Ephraim Clark and Geeta Lakshmi


In this paper we use the prices of Mexican government guaranteed eurobonds to shed some light on the controversy of whether or not the currency crises of the last decade\ud have been anticipated by the iaternational economic, financial and political community. We calculate the probabilities of a currency crisis that causes a general\ud defauit on all Mexican foreign debt (we call these country default probabilities) and estimate the internationai term structure of interest rates. We then use this information in a simple reduced form credit risk model for sovereign default, which we test over the period 1993-1995. We find strong evidence that the crisis was anticipated and that it was triggered by changes in the internutional term structure

Topics: N300 Finance
Year: 2005
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