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Sustainable transport policies under scarcity of oil supply

By S.P. Shepherd and P.C. Pfaffenbichler


A strategic land-use–transport interaction model is used\ud to investigate the impacts of policies in technology,\ud infrastructure, pricing and regulation under different\ud assumptions about energy supply. Six scenarios have\ud been defined, analysing three policy strategies in two\ud different contexts of energy supply—A, generally\ud accepted energy supply forecast and B, worst-case\ud energy supply forecast (scarcity of energy). Policies\ud include: business as usual; investment in infrastructure\ud and technology; and a demand regulation based\ud approach involving changes in taxation and tolls. The\ud paper assesses the impact and robustness of each policy\ud against assumptions about future oil supply/demand.\ud Our results demonstrate three key issues. First, scarcity\ud of oil will accelerate the development and take-up of\ud alternative fuel technologies; second, investment in\ud alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of\ud local emissions and reduce energy consumption per\ud kilometre travelled but will only reduce yearly carbon\ud dioxide (CO2) emissions after a time lag of about\ud 15 years; so that, third, some form of regulation of\ud demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. Research is\ud required to define the necessary level of regulation in\ud combination with technology investments. However, we\ud suggest that a policy involving improvements in\ud infrastructure coupled with investments in fuel\ud technology and differentiated fuel taxes will be required\ud in the future

Publisher: Thomas Telford Journals
Year: 2006
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