The Working Paper reports the results of the second, and final, phase of an Economic and Social Research Council funded project (Ref R000234623) looking at the impact of the opening of the Channel Tunnel on the freight distribution market. This is the second of two Working Papers which, between them, present our findings. Our study was centred around Before (Phase I) and After (Phase II) surveys of a range of firms engaged in Anglo-Continental freight distribution. The main purpose of this Working Paper is to look at what actually happened to their traffic and try to explain this with the aid of models calibrated on the Phase I (Stated Preference) data. As such, it represents something of a validation study of Stated Preference methods. Pleasingly, the models performed quite well. \ud \ud In addition to the above, we also review the forecasts of Channel Tunnel freight traffic that were made while the Tunnel was being built. In overall terms, these appear to have been well founded, though through rail services have not yet achieved the volumes predicted, partly due to the SNCF, and other, strikes. We report on the experience of our interviewed firms, and supplement this with the results from the postal survey. We also consider the impact of the Tunnel on the ferries and the ports, on the effects on the location of firms’ depots and level of stockholding, and any other impacts
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