SimCrime: A Spatial Microsimulation Model for the Analysing of Crime in Leeds.

Abstract

This Working Paper is a part of PhD thesis 'Modelling Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach' which aims to investigate the potential of spatial microsimulation for modelling crime. This Working Paper presents SimCrime, a static spatial microsimulation model for crime in Leeds. It is designed to estimate the likelihood of being a victim of crime and crime rates at the small area level in Leeds and to answer what-if questions about the effects of changes in the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the future population. The model is based on individual microdata. Specifically, SimCrime combines individual microdata from the British Crime Survey (BCS) for which location data is only at the scale of large areas, with census statistics for smaller areas to create synthetic microdata estimates for output areas ?(OAs) in Leeds using a simulated annealing method. The new microdata dataset includes all the attributes from the original datasets. This allows variables such as crime victimisation from the BCS to be directly estimated for OAs