The first prediction of the probability distribution function (PDF) of self-organized shear flows is presented in a nonlinear diffusion model where shear flows are generated by a stochastic forcing while diffused by a nonlinear eddy diffusivity. A novel nonperturbative method based on a coherent structure is utilized for the prediction of the strongly intermittent exponential PDF tails of the gradient of shear flows. Numerical simulations using Gaussian forcing not only confirm these predictions but also reveal the significant contribution from the PDF tails with a large population of supercritical gradients. The validity of the nonlinear diffusion model is then examined using a threshold model where eddy diffusivity is given by discontinuous values, elucidating an important role of relative time scales of relaxation and disturbance in the determination of the PDFs
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