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Supply shocks and currency crises: the policy dilemma reconsidered

By Marcus Miller, Javier I. García Fronti and Lei Zhang

Abstract

The stylised facts of currency crises in emerging markets include output contraction coming hard on the heels of devaluation, with a prominent role for the adverse balance-sheet effects of liability dollarisation. In the light of the South East Asian experience, we propose an eclectic blend of the supply-side account of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000) with a demand recession triggered by balance sheet effects (Krugman, 1999). This sharpens the dilemma facing the monetary authorities - how to defend the currency without depressing the economy. But, with credible commitment or complementary policy actions, excessive output losses can, in principle, be avoided

Topics: HG
Publisher: University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation
Year: 2006
OAI identifier: oai:wrap.warwick.ac.uk:1893

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