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Russia’s real national income : the Great War, civil war, and recovery, 1913 to 1928

By Andreĭ Markevich and Mark Harrison

Abstract

We are working towards filling the last remaining gap in the historical national accounts of Russia and the USSR in the twentieth century. The gap includes the Great War (1914 to 1917), the Bolshevik Revolution, the Civil War and War Communism (1918 to 1921), and postwar recovery under the New Economic Policy of a mixed economy (1921 to 1928). Our work builds on our predecessors and also returns to a number of original sources. We find that the economic performance of the Russian Empire in wartime was somewhat better than previously thought; that of War Communism was correspondingly worse. We confirm the persistence of losses associated with the Civil War into the postwar period, or the failure of the New Economic Policy to achieve full recovery, or some mixture of both. We conclude that the Great War and Civil War produced the deepest economic trauma of Russia’s troubled twentieth century \ud \u

Topics: HC
Publisher: University of Warwick
Year: 2009
OAI identifier: oai:wrap.warwick.ac.uk:3560

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  1. (1885). (Russian Empire territory): Gregory doi
  2. (1913). 100.3% Source: Calculated from Tables B-3.1 and B-3.5. The total is the unweighted mean of the component series in each year.29 Table 13. Rail and water transport,
  3. (1925). 110.8% Sources for Table 9: For quantities see Appendix B, Table B-1. Weights in agricultural gross value of output at 1913 prices are taken from Gukhman
  4. (1924). 118.4% Sources: For quantities, see Appendix B, Table B-3. Weights in industry gross value added at 1913 prices are from TsSU
  5. (1925). 136154 Annual income in rubles:
  6. (1995). 1466 188 ... Of which, living outside future Soviet borders:
  7. 2237 ...46 Table C-1 (continued) Maddison, interGregory, M&H, national Harrison, rubles of rubles of dollars rubles of
  8. (1927). 23: Employment in medical services is based on TsSU
  9. 24-1927/28: TsSU (1929a). Table 15. Civilian services, 1923/24 to 1927/28: Soviet Union, persons employed Govern- Edu- Medical Commu- Domestic Finance ment cation services nications service
  10. (1913). 2428 Source: As Table B-3.1. Note: * Units not reported. Table B-3.3. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  11. 3.5% Russian Empire territory (excluding Poland and Finland)
  12. 3995 ...47 Table C-1 (continued) Maddison, interGregory, M&H, national Harrison, rubles of rubles of dollars rubles of
  13. 46.3% Soviet interwar territory Weight:
  14. (2005). 68% Source: Gatrell
  15. (1992). An Economic History of the USSR, 1917-1991, 3rd edn. Harmondsworth (England):
  16. and 16. Industry33 Table 19. Net national income of Russia and USSR, total and per head, in 1913 market prices Million Rubles rubles per head Russian Empire territory (excluding Poland and Finland)
  17. (1938). and 1990-1998: Rosefielde
  18. (2001). Correlates of War database, at www.correlatesofwar.org. B. 1913-1917: Calculated from Golovin
  19. (1917). cotton is from Narkomfin
  20. (1994). give 23.9 million as the lower limit on war deaths, to which we add 1 million as the lower limit on deaths from famine
  21. (1937). GNP (at 1937 factor costs) and household consumption (at 1937 adjusted market prices) per head are from Bergson
  22. (1917). grains and potatoes are calculated from Narkkomfin
  23. (1923). grains are from TsSU
  24. (1928). grains, potatoes, flax, hemp, and cotton are from TsSU
  25. (1917). Grains, potatoes, livestock, and cotton are from Narkomfin
  26. (1919). grains, potatoes, livestock, and cotton are from TsSU (1921b). Original data for 34 provinces are multiplied by a factor of 72/34 for Soviet interwar territory.
  27. (1919). grains, potatoes, livestock, and cotton are from TsSU (1921b). Original data for 34 provinces are multiplied by a factor of 82/34 for Empire territory. Industrial crops Livestock37 Soviet interwar territory:
  28. (1921). grains, potatoes, livestock, and flax are from TsSU
  29. (1943). Household consumption per head is from Harrison
  30. (1913). In the case of waterway traffic, too large to be completely ignored, there are only four figures across the entire period (for
  31. (1927). Itogi desiatiletiia Sovetskoi vlasti v tsifrakh.
  32. (1995). Kontrol'nye tsifry narodnogo khoziaistva SSSR na 1928/29 g.
  33. (1916). livestock are calculated from Narkomfin
  34. (1926). livestock are from TsSU
  35. livestock are from TsSU (1921b). Original data for 34 provinces are multiplied by a factor of 72/34 for the 72 provinces of the interwar Soviet Union.
  36. livestock are from TsSU (1921b). Original data for 34 provinces are multiplied by a factor of 82/34 for the 82 provinces of the Empire. An alternative correction would use population weights.
  37. (1928). livestock are from TsSU (1929b, p. 221). Table B-2. Large-scale industry,
  38. (1924). livestock, and flax are from TsSU
  39. (1926). Lorimer's figure, adjusted by Wheatcroft and Davies
  40. (2007). Making Famine History. doi
  41. million soldiers and 11.5 million civilians. doi
  42. (1919). National income per head at 1913 prices is from Table 19.
  43. (1994). National income per head at 1990 "international" dollars is from Angus Maddison at http://www.ggdc.net/maddison. Consumption change is for "average money incomes" deflated by consumer prices in Goskomstat Rossii
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  45. (1994). Note: For some columns in Table B-3, units are not specified or apparently mis-specified in the source. Our methodology for aggregating them is, fortunately, unit-free.38 Table B-3.2. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  46. (1918). Notes: Column G is the sum of A to F; Series H is G, less B and C. Table A-2. Population adjustments and corrections,
  47. (1918). Opyt ischisleniia narodnogo dokhoda 50 gubernii evropeiskoi Rossii v 1900-1913
  48. (1928). p. 198), citing Planovoe khoziaistvo
  49. (1926). p. 8), from a census of
  50. (1994). Population. In The Economic Transformation of the Soviet Union, doi
  51. (1925). potatoes are from Gukhman
  52. (1927). potatoes, flax, hemp, and cotton are from TsSU
  53. Russian Empire territory (excluding Poland and Finland)
  54. (1913). Russian Empire territory (excluding Poland and Finland) Weight:
  55. Source: As Table B-3.1. Note: * Units not reported. Table B-3.6 (continued). Gaso- Lighting Solar Residual line oil oil oils Matches Tons Tons Tons Tons Boxes
  56. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1. Table B-3.10. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  57. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1. Table B-3.12. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  58. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1. Table B-3.5. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  59. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1. Table B-3.8. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  60. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.39 Table B-3.4. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  61. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.40 Table B-3.6. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  62. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.41 Table B-3.7. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  63. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.42 Table B-3.9. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  64. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.43 Table B-3.11. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  65. (1913). Source: As Table B-3.1.44 Table B-3.13. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  66. (2006). Source: As Table B-3.1.45 APPENDIX C. Russia's Great War and Revolution in Long-Term Perspective Table C-1. Real national income per head
  67. (1990). Source: Gregory doi
  68. (1928). Source: Gukhman
  69. (1963). Source: Nutter doi
  70. Sources: All figures in the original sources cited below have been multiplied by the correction coefficients in Table A-3, for reasons given in the text. Russian Empire territory (excluding Poland and Finland):
  71. (1960). Sources: Provincial populations: as Table A-1. To fill in observations missing from some columns, numbers (shown in italics) are copied from higher rows. Proportions living outside future Soviet borders are from Vainshtein
  72. (2001). Sravnitel’nii analiz dvukh sistemnykh krizisov v rossiiskoi istorii (1920-e i 1990-e gody).
  73. (1922). Table B-3.1. Large-scale industry on Soviet territory,
  74. (1994). The First World War doi
  75. (1961). The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since doi
  76. (1960). The sum of totals living in provinces that left the Empire in whole (from Note 1, below) or part (from Note 2). C. The sum of A

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