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Evolution of Future Energy Demands till 2030 in Different World Regions: An Assessment Made for the Two IIASA Scenarios

By A.M. Khan and A. Hoelzl

Abstract

An assessment is made of the evolution of energy demand in different world regions over the next five decades using an energy demand model called MEDEE-2. The 1975 pattern of energy consumption in each region is analyzed in terms of useful and final energy requirements of a large number of activities in three broad sectors of the economy: industry, transportation, households/services. Projections of useful and final energy demand to the years 2000 and 2030 are obtained by considering a plausible evolution of these activities together with feasible improvements in technological factors and likely changes in lifestyles. The detailed scenario assumptions underlying these projections are spelled out and the rationale behind these assumptions is explained. The extent of energy conservation embodied in these projections is elaborated and the shares of various energy forms in the projected sectoral energy demand trajectories are discussed. The assessment shows an increase in the final energy demand of the market-economy developing world regions by a factor of 7-12 between 1975 and 2030, and a corresponding increase in the developed world regions by a factor of 1.8-2.6. The final energy demand levels projected in various world regions for the year 2030 are about 20-50 percent lower than those expected on the basis of historical final energy-to-GDP elasticities of the 1950-1975 period

Publisher: RR-82-014
Year: 1982
OAI identifier: oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:1846

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