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The late 1970s bubble in Dutch collectible postage stamps

By Ph.H.B.F. (Philip Hans) Franses and W. (Wouter) Knecht


Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid-1980s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine whether the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were early warning signals. Also, we study whether the characteristics of these stamps mediated the bubble and the price landing afterward. Scarcity and initial price levels appear to have predictive value in various dimensions. Implications for recognizing bubbles in other asset prices are discussed

Topics: Forecasting, Philately, Positive feedback, Postage stamps, Price bubbles
Year: 2016
DOI identifier: 10.1007/s00181-015-0974-3
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