不同匯率制度下之資本移動性、定價行為與福利表現

Abstract

Based on the framework of New Open Economy Macroeconomics, this paper extends the model setup of Devereux and Engel (1998) to investigate how capital mobility, price setting, and imperfectly competitive market structure affect consumption volatility, expected level of consumption, and the welfare performance under alternative exchange rate regimes for a country facing foreign monetary shocks, and analyzes the question of the choice of exchange rate regimes. According to theoretical analysis and simulation results, the following conclusions were made. Firstly, pricing to market (PTM) model has the lowest variance of domestic consumption, and the variance of domestic consumption with producer-currency pricing (PCP) model depends on the degree of capital mobility and the country size. Secondly, the fixed exchange rate will dominate floating exchange rate in terms of the expected level of consumption. Finally, from the perspective of welfare performance, fixed exchange rate is preferable to floating exchange rate with the lower degree of capital mobility or the greater monopoly power of labor market.本文採用新開放總體經濟學作為分析基礎，延伸Devereux and Engel（1998）的理論架構，探究實行不同匯率制度的經濟體系，在遭受國外貨幣面衝擊時，對本國消費波動、期望消費以及福利水準的影響，並討論資本移動性、定價行為與不完全競爭市場結構在匯率制度抉擇議題中所扮演的角色。經由理論推導與模擬結果，本文的結論是：（1）浮動匯率制度且按消費者貨幣定價（PTM模型）的消費波動程度最小，而浮動匯率制度並按生產者貨幣定價（PCP模型）的消費波動程度則取決於資本移動程度以及國家規模的大小而定；（2）從期望消費的角度來看，固定匯率制度優於浮動匯率制度；（3）隨著資本移動程度愈低或勞動市場壟斷程度愈高，固定匯率制度的福利水準愈高