國際原油價格上漲對台灣產業生產成本與物價水準的影響

Abstract

In the present study, we develop an industry-related price model to investigate the impacts of oil prices volatility on the production costs of industries and price levels in Taiwan. The evidence shows that there are different effects of oil prices volatility on product prices across individual industries, owing to technical levels, distinct capital scales, and various dependences for crude oil. As the oil price has increased, the production costs of the petroleum chemical industry, resin industry, and synthetic fiber industry have a huge amount of increases, but the impacts apparently drop off because of change in technical level and industrial structures. Furthermore, the ability of bringing down inflation in Taiwan has lifted after the oil crisis. It follows the lower impacts of increases in oil price on price levels (consumer price index, producer price index, and corporate goods price index). In addition, the price elasticity of import gradually decreases due to change in the input technical level of imported goods and production structural adjustment. Moreover, the function of input technical changes in imported goods brings down inflation.本研究以「產業關聯價格模型」探討國際原油價格上漲對台灣產業生產成本與物價水準的影響。研究結果顯示，由於產業間存在著技術與資本的差異，以及對原油的依存度不同，原油價格變動對個別產業的產品價格影響亦有所差別。當國際原油價格上漲時，國內石油煉製、燃氣與石油化工等產業的生產成本上升幅度較其他產業大，但由於生產技術的提升與產業結構的調整，使得原油價格上漲所帶來的衝擊與1980年代相比有顯著改善。此外，石油危機後台灣經濟抑制通貨膨脹的能力也有提高，因此消費者物價指數（CPI）、生產者物價指數（PPI）與企業物價指數（CGPI）的變動幅度趨於和緩。再者，國內輸入價格彈性逐年下降，主要是因為「輸入財投入技術變動」與「國內生產結構調整」兩項因素獲得改善，同時「輸入財投入技術變動」也發揮抑制通貨膨脹的效果