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Abflussentwicklung in Teileinzugsgebieten des Rheins Simulationen fuer den Ist-Zustand und fuer Klimaszenarien

By D. Schwandt and Potsdam (Germany) Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V.

Abstract

This report ''development of runoff in subcatchments of the River Rhine -simulations of the current state and for climate change scenarios'' investigates the impacts of possible future climate changes on runoff and runoff regime in selected subcatchments of the River Rhine. The regional climate in the selected subcatchments Mosel (up to gauge Cochem), Sieg (gauge Menden 1) and Main (gauge Kemmern) is affected by the middle mountain ranges. In a first step, important model processes are parameterized according to catchment characteristics. A representation of the regional hydrology is then produced by using the hydrological model HBV-D. Based on time series of daily measurements (temperature, precipitation) at stations within the catchment, this representation can be used to realistically simulate time series of runoff and discharge. In all examined areas, the quality of simulations of the calibration and validation periods for the current state (standard period of measurements 01/01/1961-12/31/1999) can be regarded as good to excellent. To aid the catchment-specific, extensive and time-consuming data processing, a working environment for the hydrological model HBV-D has been developed. In a second step, the current states of areal precipitation, areal temperature and simulated mean discharge (MQ) are compared to the corresponding states for two scenarios of future climate changes (100 years later, 2061-2099). These scenarios are based on simulated global circulations of one model run for each of two global circulation models (GCM). These global circulations are regionalized (downscaled) using a statistical approach into scenario time series of daily values (temperature, precipitation - input for the hydrological model) at control stations within the individual catchments. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(88) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Topics: 08B - Hydrology, limnology, 08N - Meteorology, climatology, RHINE RIVER, WATERSHEDS, RUNOFF, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS, REGIONAL ANALYSIS, FORECASTING, TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS, TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE, VARIATIONS
Year: 2004
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Provided by: OpenGrey Repository
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