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The minimum effort required to eradicate infections in models with backward bifurcation

By M. Safan, J.A.P. Heesterbeek and K. Dietz


We study an epidemiological model which assumes that the susceptibility\ud after a primary infection is r times the susceptibility before a primary\ud infection. For r = 0 (r = 1) this is the SIR (SIS) model. For r > 1 + (μ/α)\ud this model shows backward bifurcations, where μ is the death rate and α is the\ud recovery rate. We show for the first time that for such models we can give an\ud expression for the minimum effort required to eradicate the infection if we concentrate\ud on control measures affecting the transmission rate constant β. This\ud eradication effort is explicitly expressed in terms of α, r, and μ. As in models\ud without backward bifurcation it can be interpreted as a reproduction number,\ud but not necessarily as the basic reproduction number. We define the relevant\ud reproduction numbers for this purpose. The eradication effort can be estimated\ud from the endemic steady state. The classical basic reproduction number R0 is\ud smaller than the eradication effort for r > 1 + (μ/α) and equal to the effort\ud for other values of r. The method we present is relevant to the whole class of\ud compartmental models with backward bifurcation

Topics: Diergeneeskunde, Epidemic model, Backward bifurcation, Reproduction numbers, Eradication effort
Year: 2006
OAI identifier: oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/23700
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