Reconciling the changes in atmospheric-methane sources and sinks between the Last Glacial Maximum and the pre-industrial era

Abstract

We know from the ice record that the concentration of atmospheric methane, [CH4], at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was roughly half that in the pre-industrial era (PI), buthow much of the difference was source-driven, and how much was sink-driven, remains uncertain. Recent developments include: a higher estimate of the LGM-PI change in methane emissions from wetlands―the dominant, natural methane source; and the possible recycling of OH consumed in isoprene oxidation―the principal methane sink. Here, in view of these developments, we use an atmospheric chemistry-transport model to re-examine the main factors affecting OH during this period: changes in air temperature and emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds from vegetation. We find that their net effect was negligible(with and without an OH recycling mechanism), implyingthe change in [CH4] was almost entirely source driven―a conclusion that, though subject to significant uncertainties,can be reconciled with recent methane source estimates