The Modeling of Mortgage Behavior Research

Abstract

[[abstract]]由於不動產抵押貸款不但是金融機構主要的產品,也是一般不動產投資人需要的金 融產品,所以政府對不動產抵押貸款的政策與不動產抵押貸款的特性就非常重要。本研 究是主要有兩個主題,第一是利用財富效用與實質選擇權理論來研究不動產借款人的購 屋決策,第二是利用隨機過程與所得分配不相同狀況,評估金融機構的預期損失和預期 利潤。這兩個主題可以分析不動產抵押貸款的參與者的行為特性,並且根據行為模式來 設定模型,可以提供金融市場作為決策的參考依據。根據以上說明,本研究目的如下三 點:1.一般與次級不動產抵押貸款借款人利用財務槓桿購屋決策行為模型建構與分析 2. 金融機構對於一般與次級不動產抵押貸款的期望損失與期望利潤分析。3.影響不動產抵 押貸款的期望損失與期望利潤的因子與敏感程度分析。只要達成此目的,則此模型有三 點貢獻:1.降低借款者與金融機構資訊不對稱問題。2.協助一般與次級不動產抵押貸款 借款者貸款與購置不動產決策。3.協助金融機構對主要與次級不動產抵押款的風險管理。 因此本研究可以提供借款者、金融機構與政府機關,對不動產抵押款放款政策做出進一 步探討,因此重要性與貢獻度非常高。[[abstract]]As the real estate mortgage loans are not just the main products of financial institutions but also they are the main vehicle for real estate investors to obtain funds, the real estate mortgage policy is important to government in enacting optimal mortgage loans contract for investors. The research includes two topics: 1. To explore the process of decision-making by real estate mortgagers in consideration of wealth effects and real option theory; 2. To evaluate the expected profits and losses borne by financial institutions in consideration of stochastic process and different income distributions. By accounting for the uncertain behavior of participants in the mortgage loans, the model is expected to help financial institutions in their decision making. In summary, there are three goals in the project: 1. To model and analyze the decision-making process of mortgagers in primary and subprime mortgage loans; 2. To analyze the expected profits and losses arising from the primary and subprime mortgage loans by financial institutions; 3. To make the sensitivity analysis of the expected profits and losses arising from the primary and subprime mortgage loans by financial institutions. After the completion of the goals in the above, the project has three contributions: 1. Decrease the information asymmetry between mortgagers and financial institutions; 2. Help mortgagers in their decision making in engaging primary and subprime mortgage loans; 3. Improve the risk management of financial institutions in primary and subprime mortgage loans. Based on the real option model, the results of the project are expected to provide insights to the decision making of mortgage loans for financial institutions, government and individual investors.[[note]]NSC102-2410-H324-01

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This paper was published in FirstTech Institutional Repository.

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