The research of the changeable factor of the bank stock price

Abstract

[[abstract]]銀行股價的決定因素一直為投資人與學者所關心的課題。在金融自由化與國際化之政策下,銀行類股揭開了開放競爭之序幕,因此本研究之目的即欲瞭解台灣股市中銀行業股價之主要影響因素。 由於影響銀行股價變動的因素不勝枚舉,所以本研究首先從許多探討股價關聯性的文獻中,整理出對股價變動有深遠影響的自變數,因此提出每股盈餘、加權股價指數、貨幣供給m1b年增率及房價指數等四個變數為本文之研究變數,建構向量自我迴歸(VAR)模型,以探討此四個變數與銀行股價之間的關聯性。 研究結果可歸納以下幾點: 1. 模型內之變數以每股盈餘及房價指數對銀行股價的變動最具解釋能力,其自發性衝擊對股價的影響最大。 2. 貨幣供給m1b年增率對銀行股價的影響則較屬於長期性,有時間上的落差。 3. 在加權股價指數對銀行股價的影響方面,可能因銀行股非市場主流類股,所以當加權股價指數變動時,銀行股價未必能即時隨之變動。[[abstract]]The decision of stock prices of the bank is always concerned by investor and bookman. Under the policy of free and international economic, stock prices of the banks start the challenge of economic. Therefore, the purpose of the research is to discover the main influence of stock prices of the bank in Taiwan. Because there are a lot of influences in changeable stock prices of the bank, the research gets some independence variables which influences stock prices of the bank a lot from many resources related to stock prices. As a result, offering the rest of each stock. As a result, offering the rest of each stock, weighted stock prices index, the annual growth rate of the m1b, and real estate prices are the main changeable factors in the research. Building the VAR is to discuss the connection between the four changeable factors and stock prices of the bank. The results of the research are: 1. The changeable factors in VAR are powerful explanations to stock prices of the bank by the rest of each stock and real estate prices. The spontaneous impulses influence the price of the stock most. 2. The influence of the annual growth rate of the m1b to stock prices of the bank belongs to long term, and have the fall in time. 3. As to the influence of weighted stock prices index to stock prices of the bank, stock prices of the bank may not be able to change in time when weighted stock prices index changes because the stock of bank isn’t the main stock of the market

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This paper was published in FirstTech Institutional Repository.

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