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Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems

By Steven C. Bankes

Abstract

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis

Topics: Colloquium Paper
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Year: 2002
DOI identifier: 10.1073/pnas.092081399
OAI identifier: oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:128595
Provided by: PubMed Central
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