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Making seasonal outlooks of Arctic Sea ice and Atlantic hurricanes valuable—not just skillful

By Louis-Philippe Caron, François Massonnet, Phillip Klotzbach, Tom J Philp and Julienne Stroeve

Abstract

© Copyright [19-02-2020] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation).In recent years, a big effort has been made by part of the climate community toward the development of climate services in order to make climate information decision oriented. In a climate forecasting context, this means identifying climate variables, thresholds and/or events of relevance to users. Once identified, these elements, which generally do not coincide with variables typically forecasted by the scientific community, are analyzed to determine whether they can be predicted both reliably and skillfully at the appropriate time scale. This process generally requires a sustained dialogue between the different parties involved before coming to a fruitful conclusion. Here, we discuss two such efforts that attempt to bridge the gap between climate forecasting and application for two phenomena already receiving a fair amount of attention from the general public: hurricanes and Arctic sea ice.We would like to acknowledge the participation of the numerous forecasting organizations that submit their forecasts to both platforms on a regular basis, without whose support neither projects would be possible. LPC and PJK would like to acknowledge the support of XL Catlin (now AXA XL). FM is a F.R.S.–FNRS Research Associate. PJK would also like to acknowledge support from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. JS acknowledges the support of NE/R017123/1 [NSFGEO-NERC Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)]. Finally, we are grateful to three anonymous reviewers who provided us with helpful comments.Peer Reviewe

Topics: Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic, Weather, Sea ice--Arctic regions, Hurricane, Hurricane forecasting, Sea ice forecasting, Artic Sea, Climate change, Climate forecasting, Climatologia, Huracans, Temps (Meteorologia)
Publisher: 'American Meteorological Society'
Year: 2020
DOI identifier: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0314.1
OAI identifier: oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/183782
Provided by: UPCommons
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