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Dynamic Water Balance Modelling for Risk Assessment and Decision Support on MAR Potential in Botswana

By Andreas Lindhe, Lars Rosen, Per-Olof Johansson and Tommy Norberg


Botswana experiences a water stressed situation due to the climate and a continuously increasing water demand. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is considered, among other measures, to improve the situation. To evaluate the possibility for increased water supply security, a probabilistic and dynamic water supply security model was developed. Statistically generated time series of source water availability are used in combination with the dynamic storages in dams and aquifers, and the possible supply is compared with the demand to simulate the magnitude and probability of water supply shortages. The model simulates the system and possible mitigation measures from 2013 to 2035 (23 years), using one-month time steps. The original system is not able to meet the demand, and the estimated volumetric supply reliability in the year 2035 is 0.51. An additional surface water dam (now implemented) will increase the reliability to 0.88 but there will still be a significant water shortage problem. Implementing large-scale MAR can further improve the reliability to at least 0.95. System properties limiting the effect of MAR are identified using the model and show how to further improve the effect of MAR. The case study results illustrate the importance and benefit of using an integrated approach, including time-dependence and future scenarios, when evaluating the need and potential of MAR

Topics: Civil Engineering, Water Engineering, Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Engineering, Environmental Management, Environmental Sciences, integrated water resource management, risk assessment, water supply security model, dynamic, probabilistic, managed aquifer recharge, decision support
Year: 2020
DOI identifier: 10.3390/w12030721
OAI identifier:
Provided by: Chalmers Research

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