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Population Change and the Requirements for Physicians: The Case of Ontario

By Frank T. Denton, Amiram Gafni and Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The effects of population change on requirements for physicians in Ontario are studied. Principal findings are the following: (a) contrary to popular belief, the overall increase in requirements will be significantly lower in 2000-20 than in the preceding two decades; (b) population aging alone will raise the overall rate of growth of requirements but that will be more than offset by slower population growth; and (c) the main effect of aging will be on the distribution of requirements among categories of physicians. These findings suggest that the emphasis on population aging in policy discussions of future overall physician requirements is unwaranted.

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